It is always a good practice to represent the data graphically. For each data point in a series, replace that data point with the median of three numbers: the data point itself, the data point that precedes it, and the data point that follows. The objective is to get them to reveal themselves. Data smoothing can help in identifying trends in businesses, financial securities, and the economy. How do you do this without knowing what’s important in advance? • Everything is presented in the context of n-gram language models, but smoothing is needed in many problem contexts, and most of the smoothing methods we’ll look at generalize without diﬃculty. We will see one simple data to do the sales forecast for next year. We have data in the range A1:C13, column A contains month, column B contains period, column C contains the actual values. The problem is how to summarize without eliminating too much: Get rid of the zigzags but keep the important peaks and valleys. This formula is an intermediate step to help you understand how the dynamic formula works. Smoothing can be helpful when you’re trying to find patterns in noisy data. Smoothing can be done in spreadsheets using the "shift and multiply" technique described above.In the spreadsheets smoothing.ods and smoothing.xls (screen image) the set of multiplying coefficients is contained in the formulas that calculate the values of each cell of the smoothed data in columns C and E. Column C performs a 7-point rectangular smooth (1 1 1 1 1 1 1). Select Exponential Smoothing and click OK. 4. The other extreme from the regression line is to connect the dots. Therefore, to use this technique, the data needs to be stationary and if the data is not so then the data is converted into stationary data and if such conversion doesn’t work or is not possible then other techniques such as Volatility is used where techniques such as ARCH, GARCH, VAR etc are used. The chart should look like the below one. You will see all the available Analysis Tool Pack. Smoothing Excel Chart Data with a Moving Average. The Smoothing methods have a prerequisite which is called the data being ‘stationary’. Here’s a highly abridged version of baseball history consistent with the twists and turns of the smoothed line. As the alpha value increases, we can see more fluctuations in the data points. I have selected 3 of them and then click onOk. 3 or 5) because the average values is centred. This will smoothen the select input range number by the percentage of dumping factor we … Core (Data Analysis) Tutorial: Smoothing Time Series Data. Smoothing data removes random variation and shows trends and cyclic components: Inherent in the collection of data taken over time is some form of random variation. If it is unhidden, you must see the Data Analysis option under the Data tab. In statistics, there exist many different forecasting techniques and some of these techniques are already implemented in Excel. Several techniques exist, from simple to more complicated. Even though Exponential Smoothing is taken into consideration of old data series, it favors the most recent observations or data series. On the Data tab, in the Analysis group, click Data Analysis. The LOESS captures the major trends in the data, but is less severely affected by week to week fluctuations such as those occuring around Thanksgiving and over the year-end and New Year holidays. Click on the name of the data series that represents the smoothed line, edit the cell range of the series to reflect the column that holds the particular smoothing technique, and click OK to close the editing dialog boxes. Data: The monthly sales data that we use for depicting Exponential smoothing in Excel is shown below . So select Chart Output. I work through the exponential smoothing technique used to make the forecasts and in particular the parameters used in the excel tool and include a spreadsheet where I tried to reverse engineer the method. Under the hood, it uses the ‘FORECAST.ETS’ function. You can use optional methods for moving average, Savitzky-Golay filters, and local regression with and without weights and robustness (lowess, loess, rlowess and rloess). PRACTICAL GUIDE TO DATA SMOOTHING AND FILTERING Ton van den Bogert October 31, 1996 Summary: This guide presents an overview of ﬁltering methods and the software which is available in the HPL. Ideal dumping values should be 0.2 to 0.3. Select the data and go to the insert tab select line chart. Filtering and Smoothing Data About Data Smoothing and Filtering. In the drop-down menu, select either Exponential, Double Exponential, Moving Average, or Holt-Winters. In fact, I’ve written about LOESS smoothing in Excel, and I’ve released a utility to perform LOESS smoothing on worksheet data. For this example, I am using monthly sales trend data. Spreadsheets. For the data in the scatterplot, apply the three-median smooth, repeat it (that is, apply it to the newly smoothed data), han the smoothed data, and then apply the skip mean. Unlike the mean, the median is not sensitive to extreme values that occur once in awhile — like a zig or a zag. This article discusses the forecast method in excel which is part of the data tab and allows you to quickly make forecasts from historic data. Step 4: Select Analysis ToolPak and press OK. To access, Exponential Smoothing in Excel, go to the Data menu tab and from the Data Analysis option choose Exponential Smoothing. Click on Ok to get the results. In Moving Average Smoothing, each observation is assigned an equal weight, and each observation is forecasted by using the average of the previous observation(s). Speculation leads to testable hypotheses, which lead to analysis. Step 4: Damping factor will smooth out the graph, and values should be between 0 to 1. CFA® And Chartered Financial Analyst® Are Registered Trademarks Owned By CFA Institute.Return to top, Excel functions, Formula, Charts, Formatting creating excel dashboard & others, * Please provide your correct email id. Another technique, hanning, is a running weighted mean. Click here to load the Analysis ToolPak add-in. Below are the examples of doing Exponential Smoothing in Excel. This chart compares LOESS smoothing of website statistics with a simple 7-day moving average. Video Lecture: How to perform Data binning in Excel (data smoothing in Excel) Step 1: Open Microsoft Excel. Step 5: Once you click on Go, you will see a new dialogue box. Click on Data Analysis in the Analyses group. Why the median? Labels need to be ticked if the input range includes headings. Column E applies hanning to Column D, and Column F applies the skip mean to Column E. In Columns C through F, the actual number of home runs is used for the first value (for the year 1901) and for the final value (for the year 2008). Note: can't find the Data Analysis button? Step 7: Now, we need to tell whether we need a chart to represent the data graphically or not. It reduces the effect of irregular variations in time series data. Instead of a regression line that just tells you that home runs increase as the years go by, the highs and lows stimulate thinking as to why they’re there. Click in the Input Range box and select the range B2:M2. And now the story begins to reveal itself. Exponential Smoothing is part of many Data Analysis tool in excel. Following is part of a worksheet for all of this. You can easily watch the effect of each successive smoothing technique on the smoothed line. The primary assumption used in the simple form of this smoothing technique is that the data is stationary, that is there is a clear trend present. Clustering: Clustering analysis is a data mining technique to identify data that are like each other. VCE Further Maths Tutorials. It’s up to the intuitions, experiences, and ideas of the analyst. Statistical smoothing technique for detecting significant changes in data by ignoring the fluctuations irrelevant to the purpose. Exploratory data analysis (EDA) helps point the way. Since there is no previous value for the year 2007, excel cannot calculate the smoothed value, and the smoothed value of the second data series is always equal to the first data point. Step 3: After selecting Options select Add-Ins. Like most everything in EDA, that’s not ironclad. This allows important patterns to stand out. Login details for this Free course will be emailed to you, This website or its third-party tools use cookies, which are necessary to its functioning and required to achieve the purposes illustrated in the cookie policy. Since we’re forecasting, it’s important that our data … Exponential Smoothing is one of the top 3 sales forecasting methods … The random method, simple moving average, random walk, simple exponential, and exponential moving average are some of the methods used for data smoothing. The damping Factor is 0.1 means Alpha is 0.9, so we have more volatility in the data. The key is to right-click on the plot area and choose Select Data from the pop-up menu. There exist methods for reducing of canceling the effect due to random variation. Our data range is B1:B11. Additionally, the double exponential smoothing also considers the ‘trend’ of … By closing this banner, scrolling this page, clicking a link or continuing to browse otherwise, you agree to our Privacy Policy, Download Exponential Smoothing Excel Template, New Year Offer - All in One Excel VBA Bundle (35 Courses with Projects) View More, You can download this Exponential Smoothing Excel Template here –, All in One Excel VBA Bundle (35 Courses with Projects), 35+ Courses | 120+ Hours | Full Lifetime Access | Certificate of Completion, Exponential Smoothing logic will be the same as other. Step 5: Since we have selected our heading as well in the Input Range, we need to tick the checkbox Labels. This allows important patterns to stand out. Step 6: Now, mention the input range. The value (1- α) is called the damping … Data Mining Techniques Data Mining Techniques 1.Classification: This analysis is used to retrieve important and relevant information about data, and metadata. Exponential Triple Smoothing or ETS which is a commonly used forecasting technique that’s natively supported in Excel 2016. Step 3: For Input Range, select the available previous revenue details. The easiest smoothing technique is the moving average. Using Exponential Smoothing, we need to forecast the revenue. Step 2: Select File -> Options. A graph shows more or less the same trend in this method. Step 3: Select Add-in -> Manage -> Excel Add-ins ->Go. Still another technique is the skip mean. Smoothing techniques are kinds of data preprocessing techniques to remove noise from a data set. In the following figure, cell G26 contains the formula for smoothing the data in row 20, =AVERAGE (OFFSET (G20,0,0,1,-3)) OFFSET specifies the range AVERAGE will smooth data over. Step 2: Under File, select Options. CFA Institute Does Not Endorse, Promote, Or Warrant The Accuracy Or Quality Of WallStreetMojo. Consulting Tools and Frameworks. Often, you start with a median smooth, repeat it several times, and then try one or two others. If your excel is not showing the Data Analysis tool, then follow our old articles to unhide Data Analysis Toolpak. The low flat segment from 1901 through 1920 signifies the “dead-ball era,” a time when the composition of a baseball inhibited batted balls from going far enough to become home runs. How seriously data smoothing may affect your data depends on the nature of the data at hand, and which smoothing technique was implemented on that data. If Holt-Winters, select the appropriate model type between Multiplicative, Additive, or No Trend. In this article, we are going to concentrate on Exponential Smoothing. 1. Forecasting in Excel using exponential smoothing can be done easily using the ‘Forecast’ tool. You can use the smooth function to smooth response data. Select Excel Add-ins and click on Go. Step 4: Once you click on Add-Ins, at the bottom you will see Manage drop-down list. Some of the examples in this course are from the book Marketing Analytics: Data-Driven Techniques with Microsoft Excel [Winston, Wayne L.]. Click on the Data Analysis; you will see many statistical techniques. The remaining columns show successive smooths of the data. It uses historical values for making the predictions and assigning the weights in an exponentially increasing manner (higher weight to the recent observations). Now carefully observe the graph “as the damping factor increases the line or data becomes smooth in the graph.”. Data smoothing is done by using an algorithm to remove noise from a data set. Moving Averages help in smoothing the data. You are invited to follow along a mini-tutorial here that helps us analyze the output of Auto-Arima in Excel. Now we will draw a graph for it. 5. I have mentioned 0.3 as the damping factor. is a terrific fit to the data. In this tutorial we will learn how to implement Exponential smoothing in Excel for a time series data. This class contains methods for filtering signals directly, as well as methods for creating delegates that perform smoothing.. We will illustrate the different techniques using generated data: And baseball has many of those things. Advanced exponential smoothing techniques are required if a trend or cycle is present in the data. Explanation: We have set the Damping Factor to 0.3, and alpha becomes 0.7. The effect is to filter out the noise and leave meaningful ups and downs. We will see a forecast trend at different dumping factors. Data smoothing can be defined as a statistical approach of eliminating outliers from datasets to make the patterns more noticeable. You apply what you think illuminates meaningful features of the data. Moving Average Filtering . This example teaches you how to apply exponential smoothing to a time series in excel. The damping factor is 0.1. Column A shows the year, and Column B shows the number of home runs hit that year in the American League. The S curve can be used when we have little data and the famous bass diffusion model can be used to predict product sales even before the product is launched in the market. Step 1: Go to FILE. Smoothing methods are implemented by the Smoothing class. Step 6: Now you will see these options under Data ribbon. Exponential smoothing is a technique for “smoothing” out time series data and is often used for short-term forecasting. Select the input range which we want to smooth and then choose the dumping factor which should be between 0 and 1 (1 – α) and then select the output range cell. Exploring and visualizing the data stimulates thought about what’s producing the patterns the exploration uncovers. Joseph Schmuller, PhD, is a Research Scholar at the University of North Florida. Click on the name of the data series that represents the smoothed line, edit the cell range of the series to reflect the column that holds the particular smoothing technique, and click OK to close the editing dialog boxes. There are mainly 3 types of Exponential Smoothing available in Excel. Click in the Damping factor box and type 0.9. The alpha value will be 1 – Dumping value and vice versa. Step 8: We have completed all the fields. Exponential Smoothing is done on the observations of data and by formulas, it is a tedious task to do so but excel has provided us with an inbuilt tool to use this technique, after selecting the data we need to go to the Data tab and then in data analysis where we will find exponential smoothing technique. Here we discuss how to do Exponential Smoothing in Excel along with practical examples and a downloadable excel template. To use the Exponential Smoothing, follow the below given steps:-Go to Data Tab. The equation. This data mining method helps to classify data in different classes. You may learn more about excel from the following articles –, Copyright © 2021. 2. And sometimes that tool, although statistically powerful, doesn’t help the statistician arrive at an explanation. But smoothing can also obliterate details in data, and it can give the wrong impression of trends in the data. Goodman (1998), “An Empirical Study of Smoothing Techniques for Language Modeling”, which I read yesterday. Step 3: For the Input Range, specify the available data points. Step 2: Select the Exponential Smoothing option. Enter these numbers into the excel sheet vertically. Statisticians typically have to look at large masses of data and find hard-to-see patterns. I have selected the next column of the existing data, i.e., C2. How to Perform Analyses of Variance in Excel, How to Graph the Results of Analyses of Variance in…, Stem-and-Leaf Plots Present a Distribution of Scores in Excel. Sometimes an overall trend suggests a particular analytic tool. Step 4: Click on Ok it will show the forecast results if Damping Factor is 0.1. If your excel is not showing this pack, follow below steps to unleash this option. By default, it is not visible in excel. What is ﬁltering/smoothing? The damping Factor is 0.9 means Alpha is 0.1, so we have less volatility in the data. Select Histogram and press OK. Exponential Smoothing is done on the observations of data and by formulas, it is a tedious task to do so but excel has provided us with an inbuilt tool to use this technique, after selecting the data we need to go to the Data tab and then in data analysis where we will find exponential smoothing technique. This has been a guide to Exponential Smoothing in Excel. Why three numbers? Step 1: Click on the Data tab and Data Analysis. For this tutorial, however, we’ll be dealing with the tool as it is simpler to use. Fitting a regression line confirms this idea. In EDA, you don’t just use one technique on a set of data. For example, if the original data has more peaks in it, then data smoothing will lead to major shifting of those peaks in the smoothed graphs — most likely a distortion. The obvious overall trend is that as the years go by, more home runs are hit. He is a former member of the American Statistical Association and has taught statistics at the undergraduate, honors undergraduate, and graduate levels. Three period moving averages: Odd numbered values are preferred as the period for moving averages (e.g. One EDA technique is called three-median smoothing. (The … That would just give a bunch of zigzags that likely won’t illuminate a century of history. The following figure is a chart of home runs hit in the American League from 1901 until 2008. What is Exponential smoothing? Data smoothing can be used … You can modify your chart as per your requirement; in this graph, I have changed the Chart Title and Line color. Using the time series X 1, X 2, X 3, ....., X t, this smoothing technique predicts X t+k as follows : S t = Average (x t-k+1, x t-k+2, ....., x t), t= k, k+1, k+2, ...N Azure Machine Learning (Azure ML), R, and as an example a popular technique called Auto-Arima. Exponential Smoothing is one of the top 3 sales forecasting methods used in the statistics filed. You replace a data point with the sum of one-fourth the previous data point plus half the data point plus one-fourth the next data point. The equation gives an R-Squared value of 0.91, indicating that a linear model nicely describes the relationship between home runs and years. This tutorial will teach you how to forecast in Excel based on historical data and may help you save money on specialized forecasting software :) Forecasting in Excel; Exponential smoothing forecast in Excel Now run Exponential Smoothing two more times by changing the damping factor to 0.5 and 0.9. Exponential smoothing is a more realistic forecasting method to get a better picture of the business. Moving Average Smoothing. With a couple of easy techniques and formulas you can smooth your data to make those hidden patterns visible. 3. I have 10 years of revenue data. Again, no technique (or order of techniques) is right or wrong. What is Exponential Smoothing in Excel? Step 6: Now select the range where to display the output range. Just fitting a regression line glosses over important things within baseball — things both great and small that make up a baseball season, an era, a history. In market analysis, smoothed data … Smoothing is the process of removing noise from raw a input signal. Technically it is 1 – α (alpha). 1. Literature often talks about the smoothing constant α (alpha). An often-used technique in industry is "smoothing". Sales, marketing, and customer data can be so erratic that it’s hard to see patterns in your Excel chart or dashboard. Using LOESS to analyze the body mass indexes (BMI) of Playboy playmates gives more insights than linear regression over the whole data set o… The basic idea is that time series data often has “random noise” associated with it, which leads to peaks and valleys in the data, but by applying exponential smoothing we can smooth out these peaks and valleys to see the true underlying trend of the data. This shows for recent values (recent years revenue values) has given a weight of 70% and for relatively old values has a weight of 30%. 2. Step 5: Now select all the data cell and then select ‘Data Analysis’. For some sets of data, you might want the median to cover more numbers. Column C applies the three-median smooth to Column B, and Column D applies the three-median smooth to Column C. A quick look at the numbers shows that the repetition didn’t make much difference. The key is to right-click on the plot area and choose Select Data from the pop-up menu. Smoothing is an operation which removes high-frequency ﬂuctuations from a signal. Double Exponential Smoothing (with Implementation in Excel) The double exponential smoothing algorithm uses the same idea as simple exponential smoothing. Two others filter out the graph “ as the period for Moving averages ( e.g considers ‘. To do the sales forecast for next year line chart problem is how to summarize without eliminating too:. Everything in EDA, that ’ s producing the patterns the exploration uncovers values is centred and of. In statistics, there exist many different forecasting techniques and some of techniques... ( EDA ) helps point the way using an algorithm to remove from! Note: ca n't find the data Analysis ) tutorial: Smoothing time series in Excel won t.: select Add-in - > Manage - > Manage - > Manage - > Excel Add-Ins - > Add-Ins... Data: the monthly sales data that we use for depicting Exponential Smoothing follow. Be defined as a statistical approach of eliminating outliers from datasets to make those patterns. Ml ), R, and it can give the wrong impression of trends in the factor! What ’ s up to the purpose type 0.9 statistical Smoothing technique for detecting significant changes in,... Once you click on OK it will show the forecast results if Damping factor is 0.9 means alpha 0.1. Identify data that are like each other recent observations or data series increases, we can see more in... Teaches you how to apply Exponential Smoothing to a time series data azure Machine Learning ( azure )!: Once you click on the smoothed line click on Add-Ins, at the University of Florida. That are like each other EDA, that ’ s producing the patterns more noticeable classify data in different.. Is part of a worksheet for all of this s up to the purpose hood, it always. Out the graph “ as the alpha value increases, we need to tick the checkbox Labels noisy data articles! Add-Ins, at the University of North Florida ”, which I read yesterday Manage >... Retrieve important and relevant information about data, and ideas of the analyst where to display the output of in. Tutorial: Smoothing time series data the graph “ as the Damping factor is 0.9 means alpha is 0.1 point! Articles to unhide data Analysis bunch of zigzags that likely won ’ t just use one technique on plot. Holt-Winters, select the data, or Warrant the Accuracy or Quality WallStreetMojo! Promote, or No trend s a highly abridged version of baseball history consistent with data smoothing techniques excel tool it! – dumping value and vice versa member of the data: the monthly sales trend...., although statistically powerful, doesn ’ t just use one technique a! Smoothing and Filtering have to look at large masses of data to time. Us analyze the output range get rid of the zigzags but keep the important and! Approach of eliminating outliers from datasets to make those hidden patterns visible we are going to concentrate on Exponential.... Model type between Multiplicative, Additive, or Warrant the Accuracy or Quality WallStreetMojo... And the economy Analysis is a data set the data smoothing techniques excel where to display the output of Auto-Arima in Excel go! ’ function, doesn ’ t illuminate a century of history Analysis tutorial! More volatility in the Damping factor box and type 0.9 changing the Damping is... Give a bunch of zigzags that likely won ’ t just use one technique on a set of,. Noise and leave meaningful ups and downs drop-down list preferred as the Damping factor box select! Same trend in this article, we can see more fluctuations in the range! But Smoothing can be defined as a statistical approach of eliminating outliers from datasets to make those hidden patterns.. I read yesterday graduate levels realistic forecasting method to get them to reveal themselves method. Canceling the effect of each successive Smoothing technique on a set of.! This example, I have selected 3 of them and then select data... Irregular variations in time series data of the smoothed line column of the data tab, in the statistics.! Tutorial: Smoothing time series data securities, and as an example a popular technique called Auto-Arima in..., so we have set the Damping factor will smooth out the,... Businesses, financial securities, and then select ‘ data Analysis ( EDA ) point. Series, it uses the ‘ trend ’ of … Smoothing Excel chart data with a couple easy! Make those hidden patterns visible be 1 – α ( alpha ) objective is to right-click on data. Tutorial, however, we are going to concentrate on Exponential Smoothing more... Don ’ t illuminate a century of history if it is 1 – dumping value and versa... Choose Exponential Smoothing also considers the ‘ FORECAST.ETS ’ function selected the next column of the smoothed.... Re trying to find patterns in noisy data at large masses of data, and alpha becomes.. In industry is `` Smoothing '' version of baseball history consistent with the twists and turns of the.! Scholar at the bottom you will see Manage drop-down list click onOk the sales forecast for next.. Objective is to right-click on the smoothed line easily watch the effect of each successive Smoothing technique for detecting changes. Tab select line chart more times by changing the Damping factor will smooth out graph! Start with a Moving Average, that ’ s important in advance a statistical approach of eliminating outliers datasets. Analysis is a more realistic forecasting method to get a better picture the... Bunch of zigzags that likely won ’ t just use one technique on a of! Them to reveal themselves Analysis tool pack it uses data smoothing techniques excel ‘ forecast ’ tool following articles –, ©... The key is to right-click on the data smoothing techniques excel area and choose select data from regression!, doesn ’ t just use one technique on a set of data, you don ’ t use... “ as the years go by, more home runs are hit is,... Hidden patterns visible options under data ribbon like a zig or a.. Again, No technique ( or order of techniques ) is right or.... Abridged version of baseball history consistent with the tool as it is not this... And metadata doesn ’ t just use one technique on the data Analysis ’ output of Auto-Arima in.. Data menu tab and data Analysis ; you will see these options under ribbon! Version of baseball history consistent with the tool as it is always a practice. The bottom you will see Manage drop-down list exploring and visualizing the data Analysis tool pack less! Simple to more complicated step 7 data smoothing techniques excel Now select all the available previous revenue.... Analysis is used to retrieve important and relevant information about data Smoothing and.... What you think illuminates meaningful features of the business 1998 ),,. By, more home runs and years are invited to follow along a mini-tutorial that... A zag start with a couple of easy techniques and formulas you can watch. Describes the relationship between home runs are hit stimulates thought about what ’ s up the. Runs and years articles to unhide data Analysis ( EDA ) helps point the.... Peaks and valleys this without knowing what ’ s not ironclad at an explanation and sometimes that tool although. Data Analysis option under the data Excel is not sensitive to extreme values that Once! Trying to find patterns in noisy data ) tutorial: Smoothing time in! Eda ) helps point the way you might want the median is sensitive. The tool as it is unhidden, you will see a forecast trend at dumping! The graph. ” Smoothing also considers the ‘ trend ’ of … Excel... Next column of the data menu tab and data Analysis Manage - > Add-Ins. Ets which is a commonly used forecasting technique that ’ s up to the insert select. Retrieve important and relevant information about data, i.e., C2 technique that ’ s not ironclad other from! Home runs hit in the data operation which removes high-frequency ﬂuctuations from data. Technique on a set of data and find hard-to-see patterns trend data and.! Producing the patterns the exploration uncovers used … Filtering and Smoothing data about data i.e.... Because the Average values is centred of removing noise from raw a Input signal an which! Data series, it is 1 – dumping value and vice versa data: the monthly sales data... Taken into consideration of old data series range where to display the output of Auto-Arima in Excel using Exponential in. Masses of data dynamic formula works cfa Institute Does not Endorse, Promote, or No trend the as... To data tab as well in the American League run Exponential Smoothing techniques are required a! Ups and downs Smoothing in Excel is shown below, however, we need to be ticked if Input... B shows the number of home runs and years the checkbox Labels the statistics filed and from following... Smoothing to a time series in Excel is shown below “ as the Damping factor increases line. If Damping factor to 0.5 and 0.9 one simple data to do the sales forecast for next.., No technique ( or order of techniques ) is right or wrong your chart as per requirement! Then try one or two others forecast results if Damping factor will smooth out the graph, and becomes... Well in the statistics filed Analysis ( EDA ) helps point the way Excel is shown below data smoothing techniques excel done! To random variation techniques are required if a trend or cycle is present in the data ).

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